Office of Net Assessment

The Office of Net Assessment (ONA) is a strategic analysis office within the United States Department of Defense. Established in 1973 during the administration of President Richard Nixon, it was designed to function as the Pentagon's internal think tank and to provide senior civilian and military leaders with independent, long-range assessments of changes in the military balance. Rather than serving primarily as an operational command, procurement organization, or conventional intelligence agency, ONA studies how the capabilities, doctrines, institutions, technologies, and strategic choices of the United States compare with those of other countries or groups of countries. Its central analytical task is known as net assessment. Under Defense Directive 5111.11, the director is responsible for developing and coordinating assessments of the current position, trends, and future prospects of United States military capabilities and military potential in comparison with foreign capabilities. The purpose is to identify emerging or future threats and opportunities, often over a time horizon of roughly 20 to 30 years. This work is intended to help defense leaders recognize long-term competitive dynamics that may not be visible through annual budgeting, near-term operational planning, or assessments focused only on individual weapons systems. ONA commonly conducts studies with assistance from outside researchers and contractors. The office's work has covered questions concerning military competition, strategic interaction, technological change, force development, and the implications of alternative defense choices. Its reports are often associated with long-range thinking and may inform senior-level deliberation without being public-facing products. The concept of net assessment has also become part of the professional language of senior Department of Defense decision-making. Strategic analyst Paul Bracken has described familiarity with the method as important for officers and officials who need to communicate effectively with the department's civilian leadership. Andrew Marshall served as ONA's first director and remained in the position across successive presidential administrations from the office's creation until his retirement in January 2015. His long tenure strongly shaped the office's identity and reputation for independent, future-oriented analysis. James H. Baker succeeded Marshall in May 2015 and served as director until March 2025. In 2025, the office was temporarily abolished by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and was subsequently restored with a reduced budget. This episode represented a significant institutional change for an organization whose value has traditionally been associated with maintaining a dedicated capacity for long-horizon strategic analysis. As a Department of Defense office rather than a commercial brand, ONA has no public share listing, conventional consumer products, or commercial operating markets. Its principal outputs are internal assessments, commissioned research, and advice supporting defense strategy and force-planning decisions.

The Office of Net Assessment was created in 1973 by President Richard Nixon as an office within the United States Department of Defense. Its purpose was to give the Pentagon a dedicated internal capability for examining the long-term military balance rather than concentrating solely on immediate operational requirements or individual procurement programs. The office became associated with the practice of net assessment, a comparative method that studies the strengths, weaknesses, trends, and future prospects of the United States and other countries or groups of countries. ONA's institutional role is defined through the responsibilities of its director. Under Defense Directive 5111.11, the director develops and coordinates assessments of standing military capabilities, military potential, and their likely evolution. These studies are intended to reveal future threats and opportunities for the United States. The office's analytical horizon commonly extends approximately 20 to 30 years, allowing it to examine structural changes that may be missed by shorter planning cycles. ONA has often used outside contractors and researchers to support its work, while retaining its role as a Department of Defense analytical office. Andrew Marshall was appointed the first director in 1973. He continued in the post through successive administrations and became the figure most closely associated with the office. His tenure established ONA's reputation as a small, specialized source of long-range strategic thinking for senior defense officials. The office's method also influenced the vocabulary of defense leadership. Analysts have emphasized that understanding net assessment is useful for military officers and officials who must communicate with senior civilian decision-makers. Marshall announced his intention to retire in 2014 and left the position in January 2015. James H. Baker became director in May 2015 and remained in the role until March 2025. In 2025, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth temporarily abolished the office. It was later restored, but with a reduced budget. The episode highlighted the continuing debate over how much institutional capacity the Department of Defense should devote to independent, long-term strategic analysis. ONA does not operate as a commercial enterprise. It has no consumer-facing product portfolio, public stock listing, or conventional sales model. Its outputs consist principally of internal studies, comparative strategic assessments, commissioned research, and advice for the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense and other senior leaders.

• 2025

  Temporary abolition and restoration

  [1]Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org

  The office was temporarily abolished by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and later restored with a reduced budget.

• 2015

  James H. Baker becomes director

  [1]Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org

  James H. Baker succeeded Andrew Marshall as director of Net Assessment in May 2015.

• 2014

  Andrew Marshall announces retirement

  [1]Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org

  Andrew Marshall announced plans to retire from the director position in January 2015 after more than four decades leading the office.

• 1973

  Office established

  [1]Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org

  The Office of Net Assessment was created during the administration of President Richard Nixon as an internal strategic analysis office of the Department of Defense.

An independent, long-horizon analytical capability inside the United States Department of Defense, focused on comparative military power, strategic competition, and future defense prospects.

• Strategic analysis · 1973

  Net assessments

  Comparative studies of the standing, trends, and future prospects of United States military capabilities and military potential relative to other countries or groups of countries. These assessments are intended to identify emerging or future threats and opportunities and may address capabilities, doctrine, technology, force structure, and broader strategic competition.

• Research and advisory analysis · 1973

  Long-range defense studies

  Research examining the military future over a horizon commonly described as 20 to 30 years. The studies are produced for senior defense leaders and may be conducted with assistance from outside contractors or researchers.

• 2025

  Temporary abolition and subsequent restorationStrategy

  Background

  The Department of Defense changed the institutional status of its dedicated long-range net-assessment office under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

  Action taken

  The office was temporarily abolished and later restored with a reduced budget.

  Aftermath

  The restoration preserved the office's formal existence but reduced its available resources. The cited material does not specify the exact budget amount or the detailed structure following restoration.

  Source

• 2025

  Office of Net Assessment temporarily abolished and later restored with a reduced budget[1]Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org

  Leadership change · Other

  The Office of Net Assessment was temporarily abolished by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and subsequently restored with a reduced budget, creating a major change in the office's institutional status and resources.

1. 1Office of Net Assessmenten.wikipedia.org
2. 2Office of Net Assessment, U.S. Department of Defensedefense.gov