Change Research

Change Research is a United States polling firm based in the San Francisco Bay Area. The organization was incorporated as a public benefit corporation in July 2017 by Mike Greenfield, a former data scientist at PayPal and LinkedIn, and Pat Reilly, a former Democratic Party campaign operative. Its core business is online public-opinion polling, distinguishing it from polling organizations that rely substantially on telephone interviewing or mixed collection methods. The firm presents online polling as a way to produce surveys that are comparatively affordable while maintaining useful levels of accuracy. Its work has served political campaigns, advocacy groups, labor organizations, and civil-rights organizations. Reported clients have included Democratic congressional candidate Lauren Underwood during her successful 2018 campaign in Illinois's 14th congressional district, independent Nebraska politician Dan Osborn, the NAACP, and the AFL-CIO. Change Research operates at the intersection of political consulting, survey research, campaign analytics, and public-affairs measurement. Its polling can be used to assess candidate support, understand voter preferences, test messages, and track changes in public opinion. The firm’s public profile has largely been shaped by election polling and by comparisons with other national and state-level pollsters. In 2021, FiveThirtyEight gave Change Research a historical-grade rating of B− in its assessment of polling accuracy and methodology. FiveThirtyEight also reported that the firm had correctly called 75 percent of the races included in its evaluation. That assessment placed Change Research among the recognized polling firms tracked by the election-polling industry, while also indicating that its record was mixed rather than uniformly strong. Publicly available reference material identifies the firm’s founders, base of operations, incorporation date, polling model, and selected clients, but does not establish a current ownership structure, current executive roster, official website, public listing, or detailed recent operating history. Accordingly, those fields remain unspecified here rather than inferred.

Change Research was incorporated in July 2017 as a public benefit corporation in the San Francisco Bay Area. It was founded by Mike Greenfield and Pat Reilly. Greenfield had previously worked as a data scientist at PayPal and LinkedIn, while Reilly had experience as an operative in Democratic Party political campaigns. Their backgrounds combined technical data expertise with practical political campaign experience. The firm was established around an online-first approach to polling. Rather than relying primarily on traditional telephone interviews, Change Research conducts its polls online. The company has presented this method as a means of producing polling that is both accurate and less expensive than many conventional approaches. Its activities place it within the broader growth of internet-based survey research and data-driven political consulting in the United States. Change Research’s clients have included political candidates and organized-interest groups. Among the political figures associated with its work are Lauren Underwood, who won election in 2018 in Illinois’s 14th congressional district, and Dan Osborn, an independent politician from Nebraska. The organization has also worked with the NAACP and the AFL-CIO, indicating that its services have extended beyond candidate campaigns to civil-rights, labor, and advocacy-related research. Election polling has been central to the firm’s public identity. Polling organizations are commonly evaluated both by the accuracy of their individual surveys and by their broader methodological records across election cycles. In 2021, FiveThirtyEight assigned Change Research a B− rating for historical accuracy and methodology and reported that the firm had correctly called 75 percent of the races included in its review. The assessment gave the company a documented place in comparative polling analyses, while also showing that its historical performance was not considered flawless. The available reference material does not provide a full chronology of later corporate developments, ownership changes, leadership transitions, product launches, or financial performance. It also does not establish whether the organization is currently active, publicly listed, or part of a larger corporate group. Those matters therefore remain unreported in this dossier.

1. 2021FiveThirtyEight historical polling assessment

   FiveThirtyEight assigned Change Research a B− rating for historical accuracy and methodology and reported a 75 percent race-call rate in its evaluation.

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2. 2018Polling connected with Lauren Underwood's successful congressional campaign

   Lauren Underwood was among the Democratic candidates reported as having used Change Research; she won Illinois's 14th congressional district in 2018.

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3. 2017Incorporation as a public benefit corporation

   Change Research was first incorporated in July 2017 in the San Francisco Bay Area by Mike Greenfield and Pat Reilly.

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An online-first polling and public-opinion research provider emphasizing comparatively affordable survey work and election-related analysis.

• Online public-opinion pollingPolling and survey research2017

  Change Research's central offering is online polling conducted to measure public opinion. The firm's online-only approach is positioned as a comparatively inexpensive alternative to more traditional polling methods and can be applied to political, electoral, advocacy, and public-affairs questions.

• Campaign and voter researchPolitical research

  The firm provides polling associated with political candidates and election campaigns. Such research can help campaigns assess candidate standing and voter preferences, although the available reference material does not specify a standardized product name, package structure, or methodology beyond the company's online polling model.

• 2021FiveThirtyEight gave Change Research a B− historical rating

  FiveThirtyEight assessed Change Research's historical accuracy and polling methodology, assigning the firm a B− rating and reporting that it had correctly called 75 percent of the races in the relevant evaluation.

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1. Change Research